Shelf-Life Risk Decision
Decide whether the lot arrives with enough sellable life for the buyer minimum, or split, delay, or don't ship.
For: An importer, exporter, or category owner moving food or other perishable goods, deciding whether the lot will arrive with enough sellable life.
Use when: You have a production date, a route, and a buyer minimum, and need to decide whether to ship the lot, split it, or delay it.
- Remaining shelf life on arrival won't clear the buyer's minimum.
- The cold chain can't be guaranteed for the full route.
- Production date can't be evidenced (batch, lot, or COA missing).
- Transit + clearance forecast exceeds the sellable window.
- Confirm production or bottling date
- Record total shelf life on the spec
- Note batch, lot, and COA references
- Set today's remaining life
· Evidence
Is production date and total shelf life evidenced?
Go — Production date, batch, and COA all recorded.
Hold — Batch or COA pending — chase before booking.
Stop — Production date can't be evidenced.
· Route
Is the cold chain and transit plan credible?
Go — Route, mode, and cold chain designed with no unattended breaks.
Hold — One handover is fragile — add a plan or a witness.
Stop — The cold chain can't be guaranteed for the full route.
· Sellable on arrival
Will the lot clear the buyer minimum?
Go — Remaining life on arrival beats the buyer minimum with slack.
Hold — Margin is thin — split the lot or fly a portion.
Stop — Lot will age out before it's sellable.
- 1Measuring shelf life from ship date, not production.
- 2Ignoring clearance and last-mile buffer.
- 3Trusting a reefer plan without verifying temperature setpoints.
- 4Not putting buyer's minimum-life in writing before shipping.
- 5Shipping the whole lot when only part fits the window.
Total shelf life 10 months — but only ~1 month lands sellable.
- Production shelf life10 months
- − transit + clearance− 5 weeks
- − buyer minimum (80%)− 8.0 months
- Sellable slack on arrival~1.1 months
Decision record
Record your outcome — a static, no-login summary you can copy, print, or screenshot.
- Production date + total life
- Batch + COA reference
- Route + cold chain
- Mode + handovers
- Remaining life on arrival
- Months
- Buyer minimum
- In writing
- Decision
- SHIP / SPLIT / DON'T SHIP