Inventory Risk

MOQ & Shelf Life Risk Calculator

A supplier MOQ is only "good" if you can sell it through before expiry. This tool turns dates and sales velocity into a clear risk signal, so you don't tie up cash in stock that ends up at clearance prices.

Best used for: Food/FMCG purchasing, inventory risk, cash tied in stock.

Inputs

USD
%

Buyers often require ≥ 75% for retail, 50% for wholesale.

USD
%

Reduces effective sell-through.

Results

Enter MOQ and expected monthly sales to see risk
  • Add production, expiry and arrival dates for shelf-life analysis.

When to use this calculator

Food and FMCG buying decisions, evaluating MOQs from new suppliers, sizing promotional bulk buys, and stress-testing how much cash gets tied up in slow-moving SKUs.

Inputs explained

Supplier MOQ is the minimum order in units. Monthly sales is your expected run-rate (use the average, not the best month). Production / expiry / arrival dates drive shelf-life math. Minimum remaining shelf life is what your buyer requires at delivery. Wastage reduces effective sell-through.

Outputs explained

Risk compares months of stock against remaining shelf life. Suggested safe order quantity is what you could realistically sell within remaining shelf life at your current rate. Cash tied up is the inventory investment you need to fund.

Worked example

MOQ 10,000 units @ $2 ($20,000 cash). You sell 1,200/month → 8.3 months of stock. Production was 3 months ago, shelf life 12 months, arrival in 1 month → 8 months remaining. Stock duration ≈ remaining shelf life: medium risk, with no buffer for slow months.

Common mistakes

  • Using "best-month" sales as your run-rate.
  • Ignoring production date — old stock in date still has very little life left.
  • Forgetting transit time when calculating remaining shelf life.
  • Accepting an MOQ for a great per-unit price, then writing off 30% of stock.
  • Not including buyer minimum-shelf-life requirements (often 75% for retail).

What this tool does not do

  • Forecast demand — uses your monthly sales as a flat run-rate.
  • Account for promotions, seasonality, or new-product ramp-up.
  • Replace buyer-specific shelf-life requirements (always confirm with retailer).
  • Store or share the data you enter.

Frequently asked questions

How is risk calculated?

Months of stock (MOQ ÷ effective monthly sales) is compared to remaining shelf life at arrival. If stock duration exceeds remaining shelf life, it's high risk. Above 70% of remaining shelf life is medium. We also flag high risk when remaining shelf life % at arrival is below your minimum threshold.

What's a reasonable minimum remaining shelf life?

Retail buyers commonly require 75%, wholesale and food-service often accept 50%, outlet/clearance buyers go lower. Set your minimum based on your sales channel.

Why include wastage?

Even healthy SKUs have damaged units, returns, and expired remnants. A 5–10% wastage allowance gives a more honest sell-through estimate.

Disclaimer. These tools provide estimates for general informational purposes only. They are not financial, tax, customs, legal, or professional advice. Always verify calculations with your accountant, customs broker, freight forwarder, or relevant professional before making business decisions.